In 2005, as Hurricane Katrina hurtled its winds and rains with startling velocity over the Atlantic, in the direction of the United States, I went bowling. There were two screens hovering over our small, late-summer birthday party: one with our bowling scores, and one showing the path of the hurricane drawn like a colorful, upside-down party hat.
The hurricane passed over Florida without too much damage—at least relative to Louisiana. Soon after, Hurricane Wilma had my family playing Monopoly on a blanket we spread out between the concrete walls of the downstairs storage room. My 23-floor building lost power, so we stuffed backpacks with the essentials: flashlights, a radio, food, my favorite doll, and we hiked down the stairs. When we reemerged, our apartment was intact, but our next-door neighbor was not so lucky. Her windows had blown out, leaving her apartment exposed to the wind.
Though these two hurricanes stand out in my mind, we’ve had many others since then. They’re so frequent in Miami that any true native knows that you only refresh your hurricane-preparedness supplies and oil the storm-shutters a day or two before, when you’re sure the forecast cone is accurate. The regional grocery chain, Publix, even sells hurricane cakes for those who throw (somewhat ill-advised) hurricane parties—such is the acceptance of the alarming reality of the increasingly-violent Atlantic hurricane season.
This year, the hurricane season, which lasts from June 1 to November 30, has so far had a historic 28 storms. Since the 1970s, intense hurricane activity has increased dramatically as a result of higher seas levels and warmer temperatures. Storms like the infamous 2017 Hurricane Harvey used to be considered a once every hundred years event; now, such a storm is a once in every 16 years event.
So, how exactly does climate change impact the frequency and intensity of these catastrophic storms? While the effect on the number of storms remains unclear, and some research actually suggests that climate change might reduce the overall amount of storms, higher power hurricanes will become more common. This is because as global temperatures rise due to climate change, the ocean absorbs excess heat, which fuels storm surge and rain fall. If the temperature increases by 2 degrees Celsius, there will be a 10-15% rainfall increase within 100 km of a storm, making hurricanes much more destructive. There is also evidence that storms are slowing down, which means that they will hover over an area longer, causing greater destruction. NOAA reported that sea surface temperatures in the tropics are indeed “much warmer than average” this year.
Slow, powerful, frequent (or even infrequent!) hurricanes tearing up the Caribbean and southern coastal states have a massive human and economic impact. The Congressional Budget Office calculates annual $28 billion in hurricane repair costs, which will increase by almost a third within the next decades because of increased coastal development. Over a million Americans live in areas that put them at risk of substantial damage from hurricanes, including income loss as local consumption, production, and mobility are disrupted. In the U.S., economic activity eventually rebounds with government aid and insurance payments, but in places like the Caribbean, the effects are felt more acutely. With weaker infrastructure to begin with, some Caribbean cities impacted by hurricanes experience severe damage that require huge repair costs—sometimes exceeding the size of the economy, as in Dominica after Hurricane Maria, and taking years to rebuild. Puerto Rico was left completely without electricity after that same hurricane, costing the federal government $2 billion in repairs. This leaves less funding for other essential services, like education and health, and reduces the overall well-being of residents, plunging some into poverty.
Therefore, prevention is essential to mitigating the impact of hurricanes. Improving coastal infrastructure, elevating buildings to avoid flooding, building seawalls, and replenishing beaches are all simple measures that require relatively little effort for the benefits provided. A more forward-thinking approach would be to slow development along the coasts—in addition to the risks associated with rising water levels due to climate change, hurricanes also batter these properties, which continue to spring up every year despite logic and science. Preserving coastal wetlands, dunes, and reefs, which absorb storm surges, would also have benefits beyond hurricane damage mitigation. However, all of these measures together are inadequate unless the source of the storms’ increasing strength is addressed: climate change. Reducing the emissions that cause rising global temperatures is the only way to actually halt the escalating storm seasons, saving billions of dollars—not to mention hundreds of lives annually.
Featured image from the CDC